SUNNIS LAYING LOW IN IRAQ AND WAITING FOR THE PULLOUT
A changing of the guard, in the form of General
Petraeus handing over the keys to General Odiermo, presages by a couple months
the changing of the guard in American politics. No one can really know, in
either case, what the outcome will be and/or whether it will be good for the
nation.
Take your pick, the political weather is cloudy and tending toward
storms in both Iraq and America.
(Reuters)
BAGHDAD: General Raymond Odierno took command of U.S.-led forces in Iraq on
Tuesday, faced with the challenge of ensuring that security gains do not
unravel at a time when American troop levels are being reduced.
Odierno
replaced General David Petraeus at a ceremony presided over by Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates, who said the two generals had formed an "incredible
team" during the deployment of 30,000 extra U.S. troops to Iraq last year
in the so-called "surge."
Odierno
served as the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq for 15 months until
February.
"He
knows that we are at a pivotal moment, where progress remains fragile and
caution should be the order of the day," Gates said of Odierno. The
ceremony took place in one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces, now part of a
sprawling U.S. military base.
Handovers are a time of reflection and I aim to
reflect on a war I’ve never supported and criticized for nearly a year prior to
the Bush plunge from the high-board.
My gut tells me we have been on the wrong side of
strategic decisions from the get-go, because our president and vice-president
saw this as an awarding of democracy,
rather than a Yugoslav style imbroglio. Strong-men (as heads of state) leave
bitter rivalries and we need not look to dictatorships for example. Our own
near-shattered civic condition is the result of a near-dictatorship on the
national political scene.
Near enough. Nearer than we need ever be again, if
we are to prevent the unraveling of our national fiber. Much lip-service is
given to coming together, to being the nation’s uniter rather than divider. But
the fact is that ‘deciders’ are not all that likely to unite.
So, we came with a flawed strategy to Iraq and that
complicates our decisions over what is best for that nation, as well as our
own. I reflect, I opine. I am an opiner. Everyone seems to be these days . . .
no license required.
Odierno
and Petraeus came together last year to implement a new counter-insurgency
strategy that helped drive violence down, allowing Iraq to begin seeking
foreign investment to rebuild after decades of war and UN sanctions.
Petraeus
leaves behind a very different Iraq from the one he faced when he took over in
February 2007, when Iraq was on the brink of civil war.
Or not. We tend to see things as we would see them
instead of as they are, especially from the outside of cultures, the inside of
which we know very little. My personal
view, standing bravely in opposition to my president and his four-star general,
is that violence has gone down in Iraq because it suits the purposes of the
Sunni population to get us the hell out so they can climb back in the saddle.
The Sunni minority ran Iraq until we overthrew
Saddam Hussein and ushered in the majority Shiites. Remember our American Civil
War? You can free the slaves, but you damned well better not walk off the stage
after having done so. Exactly what we did in Lincoln’s time and it spawned a
hundred years of lynchings, carpetbaggers, Jim Crow and segregation.
We somehow feel Iraqis are different in their ethnic
ambitions because we don’t speak their language, move them like pawns on a
chessboard and fail to understand their culture (which outdates ours by 4,000
years). Winston Churchill famously (and accurately) said, “America always makes the right decision…. after they have exhausted all
other possibilities.”
The coming confrontation between Sunni and Shiite is
inevitable, but it will be bloodier and more destructive of the national fabric
because of decisions we made in desperation.
We were desperate to show progress—any kind of progress to slow the troop
deaths and injuries. Those were described as ‘insurgent attacks,’ because it was politically untenable to call
them what they were. What they were was the Sunni army (which we had sent home and
pauperized) showing their anger at being sent home and pauperized. Additional
anger accrued to street hatreds against the new guys in power—those Islamists
who followed a different rightly-guided
caliph fourteen centuries ago.
How do you understand that, when you sent everyone
home over at the State Department who knew what the hell was at risk?
That’s a hatred of some proportion, an aging cheese
of a hatred or, as Saddam himself might have said (before the trap was sprung
at his hanging) the mother of all hatreds.
Those who harbor that hatred have very little interest in George Bush or his
war, but every interest in his weaponry. And therein, the plot thickens.
In order to satisfy our desperation for progress, we
didn’t actually make progress, but redefined the enemy instead. A paper-victory
worthy of a paper-tiger. We took the guys from the streets that were bombing
us, renamed them Awakening Councils,
armed them to the teeth and suddenly they were no longer counted as insurgents,
but became partners against al Qaeda.
No wonder deaths went down, we partnered
with the insurgency. That’s an easy thing to do when you don’t actually
have a definition of al Qaeda forces and can move them around at will on the
chessboard that the Middle East has become.
Now, of course, we’re using that lessening of
violence to draw down our troops. We got into this war on false pretenses and
are planning to get out by sleight of hand as well. Petraeus is leaving for a
promotion. Odiermo is going to oversee our orderly withdrawal, everyone
stateside will breathe a sigh of relief, the troops are going to Afghanistan
and the fragile Iraqi coalition government is going to get its ass handed to
it.
Iraq's
Shiite-led government will also soon take control of Sunni Arab tribal units
that joined forces with the U.S. military to fight Al Qaeda. Some analysts fear
the tribal units, which include many former Sunni Arab insurgents, could turn
their guns on the government if their demands are not met.
Which will be ever afterward known in Baghdad as National Getting Our Ass Handed to Us Day.
But America will be out, China will have the first shot at the oil, nearly 5,000 kids will have been killed under false pretenses, Cheney will be either on the rubber-chicken circuit or under indictment, Bush no longer able to chain-saw the Constitution and what’s left of the fabric of America searching for what went so terribly wrong.
But not very hard. There’s a failing economy to deal with.
Iraq will quickly become last week’s story—except for Iraqis. They will likely
remember for the next fourteen centuries. Islam has a long memory.
My guess is blanket presidential pardons will be
served like after-dinner mints on the way out the door.
Can a president do that? Probably. This is a president who gets away with stuff.
__________________________________________________________
Media comment:
- US News and World Report-Four Challenges Petraeus Leaves Behind for His Successor in Iraq
- New York Times-Odierno Succeeds Petraeus in Iraq
- Associated Press-Bush: 'We are at war with extremists'
- Guardian-UK-The conflict continues
- Irish Times-Ireland-Violence surges in Iraq amid political stalemate as Gen Petraeus departs
Along comes Walter Pincus, an able enough Washington
Post staff writer to disabuse us of any intention by incumbent George Bush to
release his death-grip on America’s substitution for preemption over diplomacy.
If you thought (or hoped) his eye was on getting back to his cats and favorite
pillow down on the ranch, you never counted on Dick Cheney, or Cheney’s attack
dog, David Addington.
Ah yes, and our man Foster has been quoted elsewhere
as saying "National defense with
maximum precision and minimum unintended damage should be an attractive
challenge for scientists seeking to improve the human condition.” Dr. Strangelove rides again.
Promising a 'new direction for America,' Pelosi flim-flammed us into giving her the keys to the Congress. Her obscure, misunderstood and unconstitutionally ‘off
the table’ argument for impeachment and against this kind of clap-trap
weaponization, is that this president is on his way out. "Oh, he'll be gone in a few months, what’s
the point?" The point is preserving our republic as a nation of laws. What
we give or allow this president, we give or allow all presidents to come, by precedent.
The claim that in critical situations, this newest
weapon of choice in the Pandora Box "would
eliminate the dilemma of having to choose between responding to a sudden threat
either by using nuclear weapons or by not responding at all," is bogus
on its face. It tempts presidents to respond by poll (something they do entirely
too much already), promotes reckless and ill-advised presidential shots from
the hip to juice their numbers and discourages the hard, slogging, necessary work of diplomacy.
This administration in particular, but perhaps all
modern administrations, have apparently thrown diplomacy (and the Department of
State that administers it) into the dustbin of history. I argue that such successive
presidential policy has pretty much destroyed American influence on the
international stage. It has been recently claimed that we have more members of
military bands than total employees in the State Department.
We don't need a quicker
way to strike, we need less tendency
to strike and a calmer, more resolute method by which to negotiate. In a
properly run government (let alone an administration) the situation in Georgia
would never have been allowed to fester. GWB found himself surprised by what
everyone else saw coming, but had no mechanism to prevent. Echoes of 9-11 and
Condi Rice thrown to another lion.
Ten Arab speakers. Can you believe it? We have plunged
ourselves into the darkness and expected, demanded, smashed all the furniture seeking illumination. The Middle East is in
flames and America has ten people who can speak Arabic in their diplomatic service and probably fewer
qualified in Farsi (the language of Iran).
Boeing?
Here we go again, reprising the old cold-war
language of strangleholds and us against them communist-capitalist comparisons.
Except for the fact that they no longer (if indeed they ever did) hold water.
Iron grips and who is bully to whom are a matter of definition. Steven Pearlstein
seems not to feel that the illegal and vilified hounding of Iraq into a
destroyed sovereignty is the result of anything other than Iraq's thirst for
democracy satisfying itself at the well (or possibly wellhead) of American ideals.
Well Steve, certainly no offense taken when, shortly after the boat ride and fishing in
Kennebunkport, George Bush moved to isolate and limit Russia’s energy
interests.
Ouch. Steven, you are my most admired economic
writer, but the references here sound as though they came directly out of the
administration media-machinery. It's becoming more apparent every day that Bush and Cheney
encouraged Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to lean out over the abyss, whispering in his ear that they wouldn't let go of his hand. And, like countless U.S. promises to countless dissident groups, we were not
there when they got nudged from behind.
C. Boyden Gray can put that in his diplomatic
bonafides when he next represents Bush in Eurasian energy circles. George
Bush's thumb on the scales suddenly seemed very evidently up an embarrassing
part of his anatomy. And there he was, enjoying himself so much in
China--another country he works overtime to alienate.
It's no surprise that John McCain would fall into step and march to the same sad, failed, disproven and ignorant tune.
Bob Gates has done a great many things right in his
brief tenure as Secretary of Defense. Not the least of those services has been
to bring a sense of appropriate mission to the Pentagon, where once the
Rumsfeld mission seemed in danger of replacing the Department of State.
Ignatius is right on. Either cause worthy enough to secure the man an
honored place in the history of a dishonorable administration. One would hope
that, if the Democrats nail down the next presidency, the thrown-out bathwater
will not include this particular public servant.
Allowing that Obama (presume, presume) will be the
incomer and that he will want his own choice of Defense Secretary, Ignatius
makes the intriguing suggestion that Bob Gates would be the perfect man to
overhaul the raggedy, shopworn, patched-together national security apparatus.
If you weren’t noticing (as I was not noticing) that
the State Department has shrunk to the size of a band of trumpet-players rather than orchestrating upon the world stage, it’s time to smell the coffee.
The FBI was arguably at its most effective under the
iron-fisted and power-mad control of J. Edgar Hoover. A small structure,
closely held, with very short reporting structures served Hoover well and the
lesson there is not to expand our intelligence gathering community mindlessly,
but to find a better man than Hoover.
back in the ‘good old days’ before
Mike Chertoff became unlikely head of an agency devoted to overlaying the
standing, bumping, pointing and arguing with wondering, fretting, testifying
and looking foolish in case after case.