SUNNIS LAYING LOW IN IRAQ AND WAITING FOR THE PULLOUT
A changing of the guard, in the form of General
Petraeus handing over the keys to General Odiermo, presages by a couple months
the changing of the guard in American politics. No one can really know, in
either case, what the outcome will be and/or whether it will be good for the
nation.
Take your pick, the political weather is cloudy and tending toward
storms in both Iraq and America.
(Reuters)
BAGHDAD: General Raymond Odierno took command of U.S.-led forces in Iraq on
Tuesday, faced with the challenge of ensuring that security gains do not
unravel at a time when American troop levels are being reduced.
Odierno
replaced General David Petraeus at a ceremony presided over by Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates, who said the two generals had formed an "incredible
team" during the deployment of 30,000 extra U.S. troops to Iraq last year
in the so-called "surge."
Odierno
served as the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq for 15 months until
February.
"He
knows that we are at a pivotal moment, where progress remains fragile and
caution should be the order of the day," Gates said of Odierno. The
ceremony took place in one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces, now part of a
sprawling U.S. military base.
Handovers are a time of reflection and I aim to
reflect on a war I’ve never supported and criticized for nearly a year prior to
the Bush plunge from the high-board.
My gut tells me we have been on the wrong side of
strategic decisions from the get-go, because our president and vice-president
saw this as an awarding of democracy,
rather than a Yugoslav style imbroglio. Strong-men (as heads of state) leave
bitter rivalries and we need not look to dictatorships for example. Our own
near-shattered civic condition is the result of a near-dictatorship on the
national political scene.
Near enough. Nearer than we need ever be again, if
we are to prevent the unraveling of our national fiber. Much lip-service is
given to coming together, to being the nation’s uniter rather than divider. But
the fact is that ‘deciders’ are not all that likely to unite.
So, we came with a flawed strategy to Iraq and that
complicates our decisions over what is best for that nation, as well as our
own. I reflect, I opine. I am an opiner. Everyone seems to be these days . . .
no license required.
Odierno
and Petraeus came together last year to implement a new counter-insurgency
strategy that helped drive violence down, allowing Iraq to begin seeking
foreign investment to rebuild after decades of war and UN sanctions.
Petraeus
leaves behind a very different Iraq from the one he faced when he took over in
February 2007, when Iraq was on the brink of civil war.
Or not. We tend to see things as we would see them
instead of as they are, especially from the outside of cultures, the inside of
which we know very little. My personal
view, standing bravely in opposition to my president and his four-star general,
is that violence has gone down in Iraq because it suits the purposes of the
Sunni population to get us the hell out so they can climb back in the saddle.
The Sunni minority ran Iraq until we overthrew
Saddam Hussein and ushered in the majority Shiites. Remember our American Civil
War? You can free the slaves, but you damned well better not walk off the stage
after having done so. Exactly what we did in Lincoln’s time and it spawned a
hundred years of lynchings, carpetbaggers, Jim Crow and segregation.
We somehow feel Iraqis are different in their ethnic
ambitions because we don’t speak their language, move them like pawns on a
chessboard and fail to understand their culture (which outdates ours by 4,000
years). Winston Churchill famously (and accurately) said, “America always makes the right decision…. after they have exhausted all
other possibilities.”
The coming confrontation between Sunni and Shiite is
inevitable, but it will be bloodier and more destructive of the national fabric
because of decisions we made in desperation.
We were desperate to show progress—any kind of progress to slow the troop
deaths and injuries. Those were described as ‘insurgent attacks,’ because it was politically untenable to call
them what they were. What they were was the Sunni army (which we had sent home and
pauperized) showing their anger at being sent home and pauperized. Additional
anger accrued to street hatreds against the new guys in power—those Islamists
who followed a different rightly-guided
caliph fourteen centuries ago.
How do you understand that, when you sent everyone
home over at the State Department who knew what the hell was at risk?
That’s a hatred of some proportion, an aging cheese
of a hatred or, as Saddam himself might have said (before the trap was sprung
at his hanging) the mother of all hatreds.
Those who harbor that hatred have very little interest in George Bush or his
war, but every interest in his weaponry. And therein, the plot thickens.
In order to satisfy our desperation for progress, we
didn’t actually make progress, but redefined the enemy instead. A paper-victory
worthy of a paper-tiger. We took the guys from the streets that were bombing
us, renamed them Awakening Councils,
armed them to the teeth and suddenly they were no longer counted as insurgents,
but became partners against al Qaeda.
No wonder deaths went down, we partnered
with the insurgency. That’s an easy thing to do when you don’t actually
have a definition of al Qaeda forces and can move them around at will on the
chessboard that the Middle East has become.
Now, of course, we’re using that lessening of
violence to draw down our troops. We got into this war on false pretenses and
are planning to get out by sleight of hand as well. Petraeus is leaving for a
promotion. Odiermo is going to oversee our orderly withdrawal, everyone
stateside will breathe a sigh of relief, the troops are going to Afghanistan
and the fragile Iraqi coalition government is going to get its ass handed to
it.
Iraq's
Shiite-led government will also soon take control of Sunni Arab tribal units
that joined forces with the U.S. military to fight Al Qaeda. Some analysts fear
the tribal units, which include many former Sunni Arab insurgents, could turn
their guns on the government if their demands are not met.
Which will be ever afterward known in Baghdad as National Getting Our Ass Handed to Us Day.
But America will be out, China will have the first shot at the oil, nearly 5,000 kids will have been killed under false pretenses, Cheney will be either on the rubber-chicken circuit or under indictment, Bush no longer able to chain-saw the Constitution and what’s left of the fabric of America searching for what went so terribly wrong.
But not very hard. There’s a failing economy to deal with.
Iraq will quickly become last week’s story—except for Iraqis. They will likely
remember for the next fourteen centuries. Islam has a long memory.
My guess is blanket presidential pardons will be
served like after-dinner mints on the way out the door.
Can a president do that? Probably. This is a president who gets away with stuff.
__________________________________________________________
Media comment:
- US News and World Report-Four Challenges Petraeus Leaves Behind for His Successor in Iraq
- New York Times-Odierno Succeeds Petraeus in Iraq
- Associated Press-Bush: 'We are at war with extremists'
- Guardian-UK-The conflict continues
- Irish Times-Ireland-Violence surges in Iraq amid political stalemate as Gen Petraeus departs
We are not a fearful nation, nor (if we reject
Michael Chertoff’s continuing effort to scare us to death) will we become one.
That said, we are certainly and willingly Balkanizing ourselves, dividing a previously United States
into a rag-tag and very unAmerican obsession with what are essentially ghosts
under the bed.
Derby Line has peacefully coexisted somehow with its
American-Canadian divisions and friendships since 1791. The War of 1812 with
Britain caused hardly a ripple of dissatisfaction among American and Canadian
neighbors who shared church, the watching of kids and celebration of inter-marriages. The U.S.
invaded Canada in that ill-begotten war, but apparently not at Derby Line.
Washington, D.C. burned (partially) to the ground, but the New England area
kept up a brisk trade with Canada throughout.
It’s not an accident that the line runs down the floor of the
library, bisecting it’s reading-room.
Well, the stirring up of hatreds is an initial and
necessary step toward fascism. Too strong a word? That’s because you and I and
most Americans and Canadians have been used to hearing it applied to Hitler’s
Germany or Italy’s Mussolini. Calm yourself for a moment before writing me a
hot reply about the necessity of
protecting our cities. Look up fascism. The definition is: (noun) a political theory advocating an
authoritarian hierarchical government (as opposed to democracy or liberalism).
Fits pretty well.
I would submit that we only live in a different
world if we elect to live in one. To allow 19 terrorists in hijacked aircraft
to change our very form of government and constitutionally protected civil freedoms
of movement and protection from unwarranted inquiry is to have already
abandoned the game to the enemy.
The nations of the world, who once looked our way with
hope and envy, now see us as disturbers of the peace. Disturbing the peace (the unsettling of proper order in a public
space through one's actions) is an American misdemeanor that is about to become
(if we continue to let it) a felony against the civilized world.
Bush and Chertoff? Cheney and Addington? Rumsfeld
and Gonzales? Are these the statesmen to whom we offer up our Founder’s
sacrifice? These rank politicians risk nothing of personal
wealth and power. Washington, Jefferson and their peers risked the very real probability that they would be tried for
treason and hanged, their fortunes confiscated. Not possibility--probability.
No Fernando, actually it’s your being there at all that is devastating to the country. You have
already been wrong a number of times, wrong to intervene in small border
villages, wrong to cut the streets of that village in half, wrong to disturb
the peace along the longest unmilitarized border in the world, wrong to institutionalize
what should be low-tech police work.
Confusing the means and the ends. Sounds right. Ability to do outrunning the reason to do. That, when you sit down,
shut off the TV and put your feet up, feels right as well. Guided missiles and
misguided men. Bingo, Martin. And for that and the other truths of your
illuminated life, they assassinated you.
As may be apparent from the title, I am going to
make comparisons to the early years of Hitler Germany, when he demanded and took
various powers by entirely legal and democratic methods. Hitler ended up a
dictator, but he was enabled to that ultimate goal by a population
terrified by an economic maelstrom and the ever growing lawlessness across Germany.
The Holocaust has taken Nazi Germany as ‘off the
table’ of political discussion as Nancy Pelosi’s unilateral removal of
impeachment and perhaps for similar reasons; sensitivity. It’s just too
divisive, says Nancy, as though we were frightened children needing to hide our
faces in her skirt. Never again, say the Israelis, as 800,000 Rwandans are
massacred and Stalin kills (by some estimates) 25 million of his own people,
Mao another 35 million and the carnage goes on, uncompared.
Comparison? We are denied comparison as well. Nazi,
has been made yet another N-word; unspeakable in polite society and therefore far more dangerous
to our civil rights and the lessons history has to teach. Author Aldous Huxley cautioned
us that "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored"
With Germanic precision, Bush’s Department of
Homeland Security has put the nation’s police departments on the
intravenous-drip of federal money. Did you ever suspect that one day America
would be called a Homeland. Did you ever in your most Orwellian dream believe
that Americans would stand for that? Not only stand for it, but wave the flag? 
Bush, while still president
(and, in his own mind, still able to preside by decree) will absolutely protect
Cheney, Addington, Rumsfeld, Rice and whatever smaller fish threaten to fall into the nets of American
justice.
America has already been scared half to
death in preparation, but Blackwater stands ready to ‘assist’ local police,
should there be any ‘outbreaks of terrorist activity.’ New Orleans was the prep event.
Allowed
to target
Here we go again, reprising the old cold-war
language of strangleholds and us against them communist-capitalist comparisons.
Except for the fact that they no longer (if indeed they ever did) hold water.
Iron grips and who is bully to whom are a matter of definition. Steven Pearlstein
seems not to feel that the illegal and vilified hounding of Iraq into a
destroyed sovereignty is the result of anything other than Iraq's thirst for
democracy satisfying itself at the well (or possibly wellhead) of American ideals.
Well Steve, certainly no offense taken when, shortly after the boat ride and fishing in
Kennebunkport, George Bush moved to isolate and limit Russia’s energy
interests.
Ouch. Steven, you are my most admired economic
writer, but the references here sound as though they came directly out of the
administration media-machinery. It's becoming more apparent every day that Bush and Cheney
encouraged Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to lean out over the abyss, whispering in his ear that they wouldn't let go of his hand. And, like countless U.S. promises to countless dissident groups, we were not
there when they got nudged from behind.
C. Boyden Gray can put that in his diplomatic
bonafides when he next represents Bush in Eurasian energy circles. George
Bush's thumb on the scales suddenly seemed very evidently up an embarrassing
part of his anatomy. And there he was, enjoying himself so much in
China--another country he works overtime to alienate.
It's no surprise that John McCain would fall into step and march to the same sad, failed, disproven and ignorant tune.
Bob Gates has done a great many things right in his
brief tenure as Secretary of Defense. Not the least of those services has been
to bring a sense of appropriate mission to the Pentagon, where once the
Rumsfeld mission seemed in danger of replacing the Department of State.
Ignatius is right on. Either cause worthy enough to secure the man an
honored place in the history of a dishonorable administration. One would hope
that, if the Democrats nail down the next presidency, the thrown-out bathwater
will not include this particular public servant.
Allowing that Obama (presume, presume) will be the
incomer and that he will want his own choice of Defense Secretary, Ignatius
makes the intriguing suggestion that Bob Gates would be the perfect man to
overhaul the raggedy, shopworn, patched-together national security apparatus.
If you weren’t noticing (as I was not noticing) that
the State Department has shrunk to the size of a band of trumpet-players rather than orchestrating upon the world stage, it’s time to smell the coffee.
The FBI was arguably at its most effective under the
iron-fisted and power-mad control of J. Edgar Hoover. A small structure,
closely held, with very short reporting structures served Hoover well and the
lesson there is not to expand our intelligence gathering community mindlessly,
but to find a better man than Hoover.
back in the ‘good old days’ before
Mike Chertoff became unlikely head of an agency devoted to overlaying the
standing, bumping, pointing and arguing with wondering, fretting, testifying
and looking foolish in case after case.
Louis Rene Beres is the old Jew. Maybe even not that old, sixty-three is hardly ancient but he’s one of those guys who just can’t let go of the old days. Bagels and lox, missiles and shocks, they’re in his blood.
Well, I had a hard time getting the Crusades as well. Eight centuries later and it seems my heart just isn’t in all this my god over your god stuff and maybe not getting it is a badge of intellectual honesty in place of self interest. There’s more than enough self-promotion in all three of these OpEders to go around. They write in a Washington Times (Reverend Moon, publisher) article;
Well, we all know how well that turned out. The ‘fashion’ was to arm every rag-tag dictator we could wheedle into our camp, most of whom we have had to go back and fight, facing our own weapons. The present-day armed world of soldier-children and medal-encrusted dictators is a tribute to American Policy.
Gen. Paul Vallely (ret), Gen. Tom McInerney (ditto), McDonnel Douglas and the rest of the military industrial
complex Eisenhower warned us of pretty much wrote that policy. We taught the ‘terrorists’ of al Qaeda how to fight a major power with nothing but what they could scrounge. Now they are fighting another major power and scrounging very successfully.